2. Warnings

These tools are new to the individual investor community, so there has been little opportunity for public comment. Therefore, you should check any forecast dates and prices from this screener against other methods. We believe that the Report stating the return and risk or dates and prices for each stock accurately reflects the numerical calculations. However, DiligentInvestor cannot guarantee correctness, utility, fitness or performance. We have no affiliation with any investment firm and we are not registered with or certified by any public authority. We do not provide professional investment advice.

This screener is free. DiligentInvestor accepts no liability of any kind for any problems that may arise from its use. We do not recommend the sale or purchase of any stock. We make no warranty that results of operation of this screener bear on future performance of your stocks. You can lose money when trading stocks. If you do not have experience with investing in the market, you should not use this screener. All risk is yours alone, without remedy.

For example, the cyclical forecasts have less skill than implied by the price range given in the report. Here skill means that on the date specified, the market high and low prices overlap the forecast price range. On 19 Nov 2006, we analyzed 240 stocks from the first A-ZZ one- or two-character ticker symbols. Among these we found 43 stocks that had a positive return with significant cyclical behavior. In seven months after the test, only 20 of the 43 valley forecasts had skill. We might expect skill in 29 cases among the 43, if statistics of the collection of stocks had the same distribution as repeated trials for any one of these stocks.

The valley forecasts also showed a bias toward low; that is, the corresponding portfolio did better than predicted. Twenty of the bad forecasts predicted a high end that was below the low of the day. The other three predicted a low end that was above the high of the day. For the remaining peak forecasts in the test, we would expect less than 12 to show skill for both valleys and peaks, if they are independent. Analysis was complicated by the merger activity in this group, but the bottom line was positive, in return and in skill, for a rational and diligent investor. For a copy of this test with the observed results, please send an e-mail to Technical.Support at DiligentInvestor.com.

The price data include dividend and split adjustments, so the report assumes likewise. This screener examines individual stocks, not a portfolio. There is no correlation, cluster or optimization as used in Diagoran® 2006. However, the screener software calculates return, risk, cyclical and last close behavior over the previous year in the same way as does Diagoran.

The dataset shown here is out of date, analyzed on the date shown at the lower left of the Scatterplot Chart, so the last close information is obsolete. Updates may appear at the end of each month. Note that any raw forecasts shown here might be updated on the Predictions page, so enter the same Ticker Symbol there as a check.

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